Opher Ganel
Feb 16, 2024

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For a 90% chance of success with a 30-year retirement, the most recent data show 4% as the safe initial withdrawal, if you use a static (but adjusting for inflation) draw.

However, the Guardrails Approach allows over 5% safe initial draw. You just have to be able and willing to trim your draw by 10% if your calculated draw exceeds your target (e.g., 5%) by 20% (i.e., 6%). On the flip side, if your portfolio soars and your calculated draw would be 20% below target, you increase the draw by 10%.

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Opher Ganel
Opher Ganel

Written by Opher Ganel

Consultant | systems engineer | physicist | writer | avid reader | amateur photographer. I write about personal finance from an often contrarian point of view.

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