Hey Bart, thanks for sharing your thoughts. Regarding sequence of returns risk, that's why you get 90% rather than 99% or 100%.

In addition, there's nothing magical about 90%. You pick the level of risk you're comfortable taking and go from there. The 90% figure is fairly standard in financial planning circles as the bogie to shoot for to avoid having an already large needed portfolio become huge.

As for medical and long term costs, that's on the spending side. Ideally, you want to have your nondiscretionary expenses at say 50-60% of your total budget, so if you run up against big unexpected expenses, you can cut 40-50% of discretionary spending to fit within your planned draw.