Opher Ganel
1 min readMar 3, 2021

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I completely agree with your points, and have actually made some fairly significant defensive moves in my portfolio following a rather remarkable 2020 (see https://medium.com/makingofamillionaire/my-portfolio-had-a-spectacular-2020-now-its-time-to-change-winning-strategies-3fe8ec055c21).

I especially agree with you (and Jason Clendenen) that it may take a good long while for the bubble to burst (though it may start happening tomorrow too). That's why while it's important to be more defensive than you'd normally be, that doesn't mean exiting the market altogether. Just trying to find assets that aren't as ridiculously overpriced.

Over time, growth and value investing move in and out of favor with each ascendant about half the time. Growth has been on top for years now, which is why I've moved a good fraction of my portfolio away from it and into core/value.

Similarly, US and foreign markets don't move in complete lockstep, and US stocks have been on top for years now, so it's probably a good time to increase exposure to foreign markets.

I don't expect that value stocks and/or foreign stocks will escape unscathed when the market turns, but they won't likely fall anywhere near as far as aggressive growth and US stocks will.

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Opher Ganel

Consultant | systems engineer | physicist | writer | avid reader | amateur photographer. I write about personal finance from an often contrarian point of view.