I once read an interesting little investing book called "The Zurich Axioms." One of the axioms they included was (paraphrasing) that the markets tend to go further up and further down than a rational investor would expect. That's why it tends to be a bad idea to try and figure out market tops and bottoms.

Regarding what to expect (understanding that my crystal ball works just as well as anyone else's, i.e., not at all), I expect the Fed will keep tightening beyond what most expect, want, or think is rational.

As a result, and due to the so-called Shiller CAPE ratio (see, e.g., https://ycharts.com/indicators/cyclically_adjusted_pe_ratio) still being 65% above its long-term average of 17, I'm expecting the S&P 500 to continue dropping, perhaps as much as 40% from its current level.

Unfortunately, that drop won't be straight-line, but will likely have multiple "dead-cat bounces" so it'll be impossible to know we've hit bottom. Given that the market may end up bottoming with less of a drop than another 40% from current levels, I plan to start redeploying cash into the market gradually from this point on.