If I had to guess, it seems likely to me that the Fed will err on the side of keeping rates higher for longer than they should. They seem to be driving forward by looking in the rear view mirror. To change course, they want to see a year's worth of data supporting such a change.

The thing is, while year over year data is great at smoothing out the noise when things are mostly stable, it does poorly in letting you spot changes as soon as they start.