Opher Ganel
1 min readOct 2, 2024

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Israel did attack, but it was a very restrained attack. Just a few missiles.

The reason was that Biden pressured Israel to restrain itself to avoid starting a regional war that would pull the US in. In addition, Israel was heavily involved in Gaza, and had a relatively low-intensity tit-for-tat ongoingly with Hizballah (of Lebanon, but managed by Iran). The concern was that a major attack on Iran would cause them to activate Hizballah at full burn with their 200,000+ missiles.

Now, the IDF is fighting in Gaza with low intensity and Hizballah has been severely diminished between the exploding beepers, exploding walkie-talkies, eliminating nearly all of their top-level leaders and nearly all of their "Radwan Force" commanders, destroying about 50% of their missiles, and destroying over 700 of their tunnels, ammo dumps, launchers, etc. on Israel's border.

Thus, although still a very serious issue that will likely cause a great deal of damage and many casualties in Israel, a war with Iran now isn't anywhere near as threatening as it would have been back in April.

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Opher Ganel
Opher Ganel

Written by Opher Ganel

Consultant | systems engineer | physicist | writer | avid reader | amateur photographer. I write about personal finance from an often contrarian point of view.

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