Opher Ganel
Feb 22, 2023

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Nice collection of data points. One way to improve on even the best of these portfolios is to move away from fixed draws to the so-called guardrails approach (https://medium.com/crows-feet/your-single-best-way-to-avoid-running-out-of-money-in-retirement-a9793e0eb5cd).

Monte Carlo simulations show that the 4% rule would have about a 13% probability of failure. Using the guardrails approach you can start with 5% and reduce the risk of failure by at least 2/3.

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Opher Ganel
Opher Ganel

Written by Opher Ganel

Consultant | systems engineer | physicist | writer | avid reader | amateur photographer. I write about personal finance from an often contrarian point of view.

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