Opher Ganel
2 min readApr 17, 2024

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Thank you for your good wishes for my return home.

Regarding rumors etc., there are some reports that the US and West European nations are busy negotiating with moderate Arab countries a possible solution for Gaza that would start with a declaration of an independent Palestine in Gaza, immediately followed by a NATO-supported caretaker force that would govern (ejecting Hamas) for a 5-year interim period, after which some form of Palestinian government would be formed.

It's completely unclear if they think Netanyahu can be enticed or forced to agree. They may be hoping that he'll be removed from power through some sort of popular demonstrations against him (I wish, but doubt this will happen).

More importantly, they seem to be oblivious to or ignoring the fact that Gazans have been indoctrinated from a very young age (as young as 3) to hate Israel and glorify death as a martyr through "armed resistance" (a.k.a. terrorism) against Israeli civilians.

Given that far more than half of Gazans polled by Palestinian pollsters say they believe Hamas did the right thing on Oct. 7, 2023, I'm far from confident a peaceful coexistence is possible with this generation of Palestinians.

All the above notwithstanding, the issue with Iran is separate, though inflamed by the Palestinian situation. The Ayatollahs have a burning desire to destroy Israel as they see its existence as an affront to (their distorted interpretation of) Islam and Allah.

Short of them renouncing this, there is no lonng-term solution other than regime change in Tehran. In the shorter term, a low-intensity shadow war is the best we can hope for.

That's why I said that Netanyahu and the IDF have a tough job threading the needle of reestablishing deterrence without leading to an escalation that ends in all-out war.

Unfortunately, neither Netanyahu nor the Ayatollahs have shown any special talent or inclination to manage such a feat.

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Opher Ganel
Opher Ganel

Written by Opher Ganel

Consultant | systems engineer | physicist | writer | avid reader | amateur photographer. I write about personal finance from an often contrarian point of view.

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