Thanks you for sharing your thoughts and experiences Luke, and I’m so sorry to hear of your misfortune at the hands of that doctor. I empathize deeply. My dad passed away at 91, not from “natural causes,” but because something went wrong when he underwent an operation to restore a smashed femur. At 91 and having already limited mobility before, I’m not sure that operation was the right choice, medically speaking.
Before I respond to your main points though, you’ll forgive me for smiling when I read the following juxtaposition of two of your sentences: “Obviously written by a young man” and “Now that I’m almost 63…”
I smile because you’re not all that much older than me. I’ll be 60 in a few months… We would have been in high school at the same time (though you’d have been a senior while I was a freshman).
To the main point of your comment, yes, it’s very true that as one ages, the world “shrinks” around you. That’s exactly the point I was making in my final “mistake,” that research shows retirees’ spending drops as they go through retirement, at a rate of 1%/year in the first decade, 2%/year in the second, and again 1%/year in the third.
That means spending is down 9.6 percent by the end of year 10, down 26.1 percent by the end of year 20, and down 33.2 percent by the end of year 30.
When you consider that most people’s spending is already overwhelmingly of the non-discretionary variety (rent/mortgage, utilities, insurance, groceries, etc.), that means discretionary spending likely drops at rates three-fold higher, or ~30 percent by year 10, 78 percent by year 20, and nearly 100 percent by year 30.
That’s why I wrote at the end of that section, “Ignoring this may cause you to deny yourself too much pre-retirement, because you think you have to accumulate more than you really need.”
The point I’ve made in several pieces I’ve written on retirement planning, (and especially on the FIRE movement), is that the optimal path (in my opinion) is that of moderation and balance. Don’t spend like there’s no tomorrow, but also don’t spend like there’s no today.
The former will have your future self curse your current financial folly, while the latter may well have him curse your current obliviousness as to the inherent uncertainty of life and the low likelihood of our future unfolding exactly as we plan and hope.
As the wise saying goes, “If you want to make G-d laugh, tell him your plans.”
