That's one of my favorite quotes! Did you know it's from Danish physics Nobel laureate Nils Bohr?

I think the market is more likely than not to drop, probably by more than most people expect.

I think we very well may already be in a recession, or enter one this year if not. I think the Fed will increase interest rates until inflation comes back under control.

This will make things harder for many businesses and individuals. Unemployment will likely rise (which given how short-staffed do many businesses already are, isn't going to hit as hard as it would at other times).

Residential real estate will likely stop shooting through the roof, but I doubt it will crash given the great deficit we have in homes after years of minimal construction. Commercial real estate may well drop a lot.

It will take several years, most likely, and the economy will come back roaring, and the stock market will recover to its current levels, with newly strengthened earnings keeping the Cape ratio at less extreme values.

And if all the above happens as I predict, I'd be more shocked than anyone else... 🙃 because as you said, predicting accurately is really hard, especially the future...