The 4% rule is still a great starting point, but the fact that the market has had such a huge run-up in the past decade makes it difficult for it to continue rising as fast as it has in the past.

There are other headwinds which go beyond my expertise, but here are some to ponder.

• The trade war with China
• The long-term economic fallout from the new corona virus and how it’s disrupting global supply chains
• The gradually worsening impacts of global climate change
• The graying of our population and those of most 1st world nations reducing productivity and placing greater burdens on welfare systems
• Related to that last, as seniors enter their retirement years, they change over from being net buyers of equities to net sellers — this reduces the demand and increases the supply of shares offered for sale.