Opher Ganel
1 min readNov 11, 2022

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The greatest mistake of the FIRE crowd is that they're committed to many years of extreme frugality as a means to reach a mythical eutopia where their portfolio reaches 25x their minimum viable budget.

This is a deeply flawed mission on several levels:

Problem #1: Extreme frugality is a joyless way to live, and doing that for 10, 15, or 20 years is inhuman. Plus, you have no guarantee that you'll live long enough to enjoy that "freedom."

Problem #2: What you think today is your minimum viable budget will be worth a lot less in 10, 15, or 20 years, so you'll have to keep grinding for many more years.

Problem #3: The 25x is based on the 4% rule, which has an 87% likelihood of success for a 30-year retirement, but less than 10% chance for a 50-year retirement.

Instead, they'd be better advised to find a job that's meaningful and enjoyable for them now, be plausibly frugal, and invest aggressively. With a meaningful and enjoyable job, they'll be able to *live* while working, and keep doing that until their portfolio is 33x or more their desired level of retirement spending (minus their expected Social Security benefits).

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Opher Ganel
Opher Ganel

Written by Opher Ganel

Consultant | systems engineer | physicist | writer | avid reader | amateur photographer. I write about personal finance from an often contrarian point of view.

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