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Dec 9, 2023

This totally depends on the likelihood of outcomes.

If I bet $1 to earn $1 and there is a 90% chance of success, it's far better than betting $1 to win $10 when the chance of success is 0.001%.

So the odds being strongly in your favor depends not just on the potentiall payoff size, but rather on the expectation value, which is the product of the payoff and its likelihood.

Opher Ganel
Opher Ganel

Written by Opher Ganel

Consultant | systems engineer | physicist | writer | avid reader | amateur photographer. I write about personal finance from an often contrarian point of view.

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